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True count: how to calculate it
The running count tells you how many more low cards than high cards have gone. The true count tells you how strong that is relative to what's left, which is what actually decides your edge and your bet.
Round towards zero (so +2.7 becomes +2). Practise it in the free true count drill.
Why you need it
A running count of +6 means six extra high cards are waiting somewhere in the shoe. If there's only one deck left, those six extra cards make up a big share of it, which is a strong edge. If there are five decks left, they're spread thin and barely matter. Dividing by decks remaining puts every situation on the same scale.
Worked examples
| Running count | Decks left | Sum | True count |
|---|---|---|---|
| +6 | 3 | +6/3 | +2 |
| +10 | 2 | +10/2 | +5 |
| +8 | 4 | +8/4 | +2 |
| −6 | 2 | −6/2 | −3 |
| +5 | 2.5 | +5/2.5 | +2 |
| +3 | 5 | +3/5 | 0 |
Estimating decks remaining
Look at the discard tray rather than the shoe. Work out how many decks have been dealt, then subtract from the total. Half-deck accuracy is fine for betting. In a 6-deck game, if about 2½ decks are in the discard tray, there are about 3½ left.
Betting with the true count
| True count | Bet (units) |
|---|---|
| +1 or less | 1 (minimum) |
| +2 | 2 |
| +3 | 4 |
| +4 or more | 8 |
A unit is your minimum bet. Bigger spreads earn more but draw more attention from the casino and need a bigger bankroll.
Frequently asked questions
Do you round the true count up or down?
Most Hi-Lo players round towards zero (truncate), so +2.9 counts as +2 and -1.5 counts as -1. Some round down (floor). Pick one method and stick to it.
Do I need a true count in single-deck blackjack?
Less so. With one deck the running count and true count are close early on, but dividing by the fraction of the deck remaining still makes your bets more accurate.